I've always wondered if there are estimates or stats on the following:While I understand what the reader is asking, I don't really concede the utility of the first question, because passing tests is not the only goal that skaters set for themselves. For kids, it's really about when you start and how much ice time you can get in. It's simply that if you set that goal, and make a plan, it's very very doable, especially if you start as young as ten. Chances are the number of people who get to the Senior test is a fraction of the ones who take the Preliminary test. But that's like saying "what percentage of freshmen end up as doctors?" Who cares? If you're not trying to be a doctor, it hardly matters that you don't become one.
1) what percentage of preliminary skaters will pass the intermediate freestyle test down the road?
2) what percentage of intermediate skaters will eventually pass the senior freestyle test? (Testing only, not necessarily competitive.)
3) To quote from the "keyword search" post, "For children, if you start skating by age 10 you will be landing doubles by the time you graduate high school, provided you work at it. You can pretty much take that to the bank." How likely will this hypothetical population pass a senior test which includes a double lutz?
A better way to put it might be "what percentage of preliminary skaters who WANT to reach their senior test make it." But then I might counter with "what percentage of 6 year old girls who want to be princesses make it." It's just not a question that can be answered, because there are too many variables and bumps in the road.
Some kids just never, as the reader says, manage to get all the doubles. It might be time, it might be talent, it might be loss of interest. But the lutz is not the best measure. It's required for the test, but on the other hand you don't have to do all the doubles for the senior test. If you've got one really strong one, you can repeat that as a combination, and just leave out your weakest double, provided it isn't the lutz. I've seen senior tests that used a solid double axel in place of a wonky salchow or loop. My own daughter's strongest double was the lutz, so she put it in there both as one of her doubles, and in combination.
The biggest impediment to passing a Senior tests is not the skills, it's the grueling 4-minute program. Everyone who takes a senior test knows that they can do all the elements, or their coach wouldn't be letting them test. But a lot of kids just don't get well enough in shape to skate that long a program.
My point is that you shouldn't fall into the trap of saying "oh I'm one of the xx% that couldn't get to the Senior test." It's that you're one of the successful ones that met a goal, or got as far as time, talent, and inclination sent you.